Since this post is part of the 24 Hours of Innovation, I thought it’d be appropriate to start with a quote from futurist Bob Johansen, President of the Institute of the Future from 1996-2004 In his book Get There  Early, Johansen asserts that “no one can predict the future.” By his definition, predictions are statements of what will happen—and they’re almost always wrong.  Futurists forecast what may happen and “a forecast doesn’t need to come true to be valuable.”  Forecasts are valuable when they “provoke new thought, new insights, new possible actions, or new ways of thinking about the present [and] you don’t need to agree with a forecast to find it useful.”

To that end, My Pep Talk for 2009 during the 24 Hours of Innovation is less a statement of fact about the future of marketing innovation and more an outline of real examples, rhetorical challenges and possible outcomes.

The marketing hard sell and cold call have given way to interactions where brands intersect a customer’s life and add to their experience, provide clarity or make the customer’s life easier.  But marketing strategies and tactics are not in line with this new role; it’s the basis of an identity crisis in marketing—the likes of which we’ve never seen.

Marketing’s identity crisis

Marketing has an identity crisis and to solve it, marketers need to innovate.  Innovation requires us to lead, experiment, and take risks with emerging technology as well as traditional channels.  It also requires clients to create a culture so this can happen.  But right now we face a clash of wills and expectations. To get past it, clients and their marketing partners need to create a new framework from which to operate.

Social media and the Always On, consumer-controlled marketing environment change the rules almost daily.

Technology emerges and changes, sometimes faster than it can be harnessed—making it nearly impossible for marketers to make proven recommendations to clients , especially as these same clients begin to require money back guarantees and assurances of ROI.  A recent example is the Coca Cola Company’s pay-for-performance plan, a model that, instead of fostering innovation, runs the risk of stifling it. 

So what’s an agency or CMO to do? To begin with, I believe marketers need to become futurists and first movers by utilizing emerging technologies for marketing.

Some marketers have stepped into uncharted areas with great success and support from progressive clients.  ComBlu harnesses the power of online communities for their clients.  The Advance Guard’s work in social media allows them to stand firm in the belief that as marketers “we simply set the stage and arrange the chairs for customer conversation to take place.”

These firms are products of an industry diametrically opposed to itself, in which agencies can no longer afford to be reactionary, but in many cases can’t afford to be risk-takers, either.  For agencies to innovate and lead they need to continually experiment. 

Web shops do this every day by developing unique solutions to problems that can’t be solved by off-the-shelf products.  iPhone app developers quickly create micro software for very specific problems.

Perhaps innovation requires marketers to have access to a budget line item in which unproven methods can be tried without being held hostage to guaranteed sales increases.  This will be familiar ground for any marketer whose agency has continually preached the benefits of brand marketing with the cautionary warning that not all dollars can be quantified.

Problems fuel innovation

Many a conundrum has fueled innovation in the past, although it could be argued that these innovations have not necessarily helped marketers.

In a well informed treatise, Joe Jaffe has forecast the death of the 30-second television spot because of the DV-R. In response to these threats, the DV-R has driven innovation around commercials, soon services like ZillionTV will allow spots to be grouped and customized to a viewer’s interests.  For example, in the near future you’ll be able to choose nothing but beer commercials as your preferred pitch.   This reframes the whole model from less of an interruption to more of a choice—by giving viewers control and an increased ability to filter and giving marketers what Zillion calls “zero-waste” media.

Another innovative service will interrupt viewers fast forwarding through commercials and they’ll see a static page containing an enticing message that compels them to stop and watch a spot.  A bikini clad woman may invite them to view a commercial for Jamaica tourism—letting them know what they’re missing by flying past commercials.

Similar circumstances have driven the innovation that created blogs, satellite radio, YouTube and many other tools.

The near future

So what’s to become of advertising and marketing in the future?  Are we becoming a digital world with no use for the physical?  Far from it.  A 2009 digital report by Razorfish forecast that online and physical experiences will continue to merge.  Mobile continues to gain traction as customers are less concerned if they use a PC, phone, or their feet to access a brand.  Without distinction, customers want brands to be there whenever and wherever they want them. 

The offline experience melts with online as the web becomes less reactive and more real time, a phenomenon that began with the rise of the 24-hour news cycle and has increased exponentially as millions of online users flock to tools like Twitter and Facebook on their laptops and Blackberrys.

Technology dances with marketing

The Razorfish report shows distinct areas where technology has and will intersect with marketing.

RFID is an exciting innovation enabling companies like Target to become hyper efficient logistics machines.  By utilizing RF technology in their backrooms, the Target replenishment system allows shelves to stay stocked without over ordering, keeping inventory lean and responsive to customer’s purchasing habits.  

This same technology has been a marketing tool for years at Target.  They pioneered the development of their bridal and baby registry using RF technology.

In the near future, as barcode scanners become part of a Blackberry, for example, Target guests will be able to scan a product for instant information including user reviews, competitive price matching or suggested uses and accessories.

For years RF technology has been used for chip times in marathons, to find a lost dog in your neighborhood or to pay tolls via EZ Pass.  But when that same technology not only collects our money on the LA Freeway, but beams traffic information into our on-board navigation system and suggests alternative routes , then we’ll be starting to integrate and optimize this technology.

How many times have you found yourself in the grocery store line, with a full cart—and no credit card? But you’ve got your cell phone—because you didn’t want to miss that important client call.  Mobile wallet via your cell phone would allow you to bring home the bacon, literally—without running home for your billfold.

Reframing marketing

Are the above scenarios marketing?   Traditionalists would say no—not in the truest sense—they  are convenience and customer service on steroids.   Using Zappos as an example, one could certainly call their focus on customer service one hell of a marketing strategy.

So in conclusion, marketing innovation lies not entirely in positioning, public relations and ads, or even online communities, Twitter, and iPhone apps.  Innovation happens as a result of online and offline worlds merging, by reframing marketing’s role and developing tools and tactics that align all of the above.   

More importantly, if innovation is to be the savior of marketing, clients need to foster a culture that allows for experimentation and risk, and marketers need to offer a return on investment.  Two very different problems with different solutions; but in order to function, marketing must do both.

Thanks to Philippe De Ridder and the Board of Innovation for inviting me to participate!